busy working on chapter 41 and

a chapter for my friend, KarenA.

I am so anxious over the elections that I have to keep busy with something else. Only a couple more days and then we will know.

I never believe the polls and neither should anyone else. MOstly no one knows who will actually show up to vote and since all the pollsters use some basis of turnout for determining the number none of them are any good. For instance, if Gallup uses 39% dems and 30% reps and the rest independents they infer that there will be 9% more democrats that actually vote than republicans. Aint' going to happen. 3% is more realistic - perhaps 9% would have been possible if McCain had not chosen Sarah Palin. She energized the REpublicans and they will go vote now where they were tepid before. Now about the dem #'s - youth don't vote regardless of what you hear. There is always some that are excited but they don't vote. Black's vote but even in this election anyone has to increase the number of blacks wthat will definitely vote. It is an historic ocassion for them. They will turn out.

So, when you read a poll that says 50% Obama to 46% McCain, don't forget the margin of error. If it is 4% then the poll could just as easily say 50% McCain and 46% Obama. And remember the numbers underlying the results.

My final bit of warning-- if the public polls were so great and accurate the politicans would never hire their own pollster. A politican has a reason to spend the money for the truth. I worked in several campaigns and I have seen the discrepancies first hand. the public polls are used to depress one side from voting. If a group thinks their guy cannot win they stay home. But then if the other side thinks it is in the bag they stay home. So polls hurt the turnout.

Go Vote. Forget the polls. Just do it. (to steal from Nike).